I Cogitate

The following article at the Editor and Publisher web site (E&P) speaks mightily to those inclined to base their reality on quantifiable truth. A word of caution to certain right-wingers: don't laugh too long and hard.  Senators Chuck Hegel, John McCain, Richard Lugar (this list of Republicans grows daily) are no longer shackled by having to line up in formation and support George Bush and his re-election. They are now free to do what they know is right and base their actions on what they know is real. The clash has only begun.

"Knight Ridder Analysis Speaks Frankly: U.S. Losing in Iraq
By E&P Staff
Published: January 22, 2005

NEW YORK--In a startling new analysis, Knight Ridder reporters Tom Lasseter and Jonathan S. Landay, who have done some of the best reporting on Iraq during the past two years, declare that unless something “dramatic” changes, “the United States is heading toward losing the war in Iraq.”

The lengthy article, distributed Saturday, is based on what the reporters call an analysis of U.S. government statistics, which show the U.S. military “steadily losing ground to the predominantly Sunni Muslim insurgency in Iraq.

"The analysis suggests that, short of a newfound will by Iraqis to reject the insurgency or a large escalation of U.S. troop strength, the United States won't win the war.”

A number of opinion polls in the U.S. this week showed, for the first, that a clear majority of Americans now believe that invading Iraq was a mistake.

Unfavorable trends cited in the Knight Ridder report include:

• U.S. combat deaths rising to an average of 82 per month with 808 wounded per month.

• Attacks on the U.S.-led coalition since November 2003, when statistics were first available, rose from 735 a month to 2,400 in October 2004.

• Electricity production has been below prewar levels since October.

• Iraq is pumping about 500,000 barrels of oil a day fewer than its prewar peak of 2.5 million barrels per day as a result of sabotage.

• Despite some positive developments, such as the desire by many Iraqis to vote, the insurgency is getting larger and “more effective,” according to the KR reporters.

• “At the close of 2003, U.S. commanders put the number of insurgents at 5,000,” they write. “Earlier this month, Gen. Mohammed Abdullah Shahwani, the director of the Iraqi intelligence service, said there are 200,000 insurgents, including at least 40,000 hard-core fighters. The rest, he said, are part-time fighters and supporters who provide food, shelter, money and intelligence.”

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