I Cogitate
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Obama's miscalculations and Edwards' populism
Barack Obama 'brought people together' in Illinois during his run for the U.S. Senate. He successfully wooed independents and a fair number of Republicans. Keep in mind though that he was running against Alan Keyes, the political equivalent of the circus clown.
Now Obama seems stuck in neutral, starting out his Democratic presidential nomination run generating heartfelt enthusiasm but unable to get past first gear and now idling. It's as if Obama and his advisors failed to notice that it is the most politically-driven who typically turn out during the primaries because his run so far has limited universal appeal. I was there with him from the beginning but more and more he has lost me with too much calculation and timidity. Offering dramatic change, something tangible enough for people to viscerally grasp, is a requirement for those seeking political promotion in 2008, at least those wishing to be victorious.
It's fine if Obama wants to bring people together but at what cost and is that the supreme issue of 2008? Those wishing to smite others and those actually doing so need to be confronted and exiled, not reconciled with. Being all for a big tent is wonderful but inviting political arsonists into it makes no sense.
Plus, what else does Obama want to accomplish and how does that stand out and apart from others? He needs to move beyond position papers and LEAD, to commit to lines in the sand against policies and actions harming this country but foremost, for those individuals who continue to get the short shrift and are unable to generate the political power necessary to defend themselves. Ask people about where Obama stands on healthcare, on foreign policy, on Iraq and most would simply shake their heads, not knowing. There is nothing politically standing out about Obama and his platform other than the limited appeal of wanting to bring people together -- an element not necessarily appealing to Democratic activists who have been stuffed from 7 years.
Obama needs a new roll-ou, needing to point to where his leadership in the Senate made a difference on various issues. But there may not be the necessary substance there, at least for hardcore Democrats. He may have worked well with others across the aisle in the Senate but such is not a primary selling point and it isn't leadership.
Here is a recent article that covers much of this territory:
Polls don't reflect Obama's star powerGo here for the rest.
The Democrat creates a stir wherever he goes, but runs far behind Clinton nationally. Some observers are puzzled; others say he's too gentle.
Robin Abcarian
Los Angeles Times
October 29, 2007
DES MOINES — Hutton Street, a modest, racially mixed working-class neighborhood on the city's east side, was unprepared for the miniature army that invaded it one recent Saturday morning when Barack Obama decided to pay a call.
Leading a parade of bodyguards, staffers and about 20 journalists, Obama first knocked on the door of Fortino and Maria Brito. Mexican immigrants, the Britos spoke little English and the conversation was brief. A few houses down, the Democratic presidential candidate had better luck with Jody DeGard, who was "flabbergasted" to see him on her doorstep. Her support tottering between Illinois Sen. Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, DeGard said she would remember the personal touch come January's caucuses.
Moments later, Carol Cook, an account manager for John Deere, walked out of her front door and almost fell off her porch when she saw the commotion. "Who is that?" Cook called across the street to her neighbor Dixie Edwards.
"It's that black guy who's running for president!" Edwards called back, prompting Cook to race over to shake his hand.
Everywhere he goes, Obama gets a Hutton Street-style welcome.
Crowds coo, strain to shake his hand, get his autograph, take his picture. In town meetings, supporters testify with religious fervor. At a Des Moines forum on global climate change, high school physics teacher Bill Cox lobbed the ultimate love bomb: "You remind me of John Kennedy," Cox said. "Are you going to be the person to . . . lead us to true energy independence?"
"I am the man," Obama replied confidently, prompting an ovation.
So why isn't Obama doing better in the polls?
No candidate in recent memory has swept onto the national political scene with greater fanfare. Obama has been on magazine covers and talk shows. Oprah Winfrey endorsed him, and Obama Girl's unrequited urges turned him into a YouTube sensation. He has raised nearly as much money as Clinton, and in Iowa, at least, has advertised twice as much (4,244 TV spots versus 2,192, according to the Nielsen Co.)
Yet he has been unable to translate the relentless, often fawning attention into anything approaching a surge, especially in the crucial state of Iowa. Here, where the nation's first contest is scheduled to take place the first week of January, polls show him in a tight three-way race with Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, though Clinton has recently pulled ahead.
On the other hand, John Edwards has drawn sharp delineations between himself and the GOP and also between himself and other Democratic presidential candidates. He is more than ready to push back which is what activists want. Edwrads is proposing major changes -- all to benefit those who lack power in D.C.
Here's a recent article on Edwards:
With Trippi's Rise, Some See a New John EdwardsGo here for the rest.
Chris Cillizza
washington Post
October 23, 2007
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton may have a widening lead in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, but John Edwards is not about to give her a free ride.
"Instead of moving from primary mode to general election mode, why don't we have tell-the-truth mode, all the time, and not say something different one time than we say another time?" Edwards asked pointedly last week in New Hampshire.
From the day he announced his candidacy in New Orleans last December, Edwards has presented himself as an outsider, someone much different from the senator who was John F. Kerry's running mate in 2004. But in recent weeks he has launched a markedly more aggressive attack on what he says is Clinton's poll-tested commitment to the status quo, and the new tone to his campaign has coincided with the growing influence of the strategist behind Howard Dean's assault on the Democratic establishment four years ago -- Joe Trippi.
Those who know Edwards best insist that his campaign reflects his own life experiences, including his wife's ongoing battle with cancer, and that in hiring Trippi, a cult figure on the party's left for his role with Dean, Edwards has found someone who can translate his instincts into a coherent campaign message. Trailing Clinton and Barack Obama in the polls, Edwards is basing his campaign on a vision of bold change not shared by either senator.
"Trippi has made him more aggressive and tuned him in to the anger and passion of the Net roots," said Carter Eskew, a senior Democratic strategist not affiliated with any 2008 campaign.
While Trippi was described as a senior adviser when he joined the Edwards campaign in mid-April, he has become much more in the intervening six months: the de facto campaign manager, lead media consultant and -- perhaps most important -- trusted confidante of Elizabeth Edwards, whose influence in the campaign far exceeds that of the conventional candidate's wife.
and
Here's another:
From Behind, Edwards Runs At Full Speed In IowaHere's the remainder.
Clinton's Shadow Hasn't Cooled the Man and His Fans
Libby Copeland
Washington Post
October 27, 2007
DES MOINES -- Concerning the 2008 election, a few technical points to keep in mind: Voters haven't actually voted yet, and Hillary Clinton hasn't actually won the Democratic nomination.
These plain facts are terribly important to the supporters of John Edwards here, and especially to superfans like Leslie Pomerantz, 64, who has a custom-made Edwards license-plate cover and recently spent several minutes trying to talk a drive-through fast-food clerk into supporting her man.
Oh! It can be so frustrating to Pomerantz, the way everyone seems to think Clinton's got it in the bag. Clinton this, Clinton that. Clinton, Clinton, Clinton, Barack Obama, Clinton. All those national polls showing Clinton trouncing the field. All those front-page stories on Clinton, with Edwards buried on Page 3. All that Clinton money, which people think is such a big deal.
"It impresses a lot of people," Pomerantz says. They say, " 'Oh, well, she's got it made.' " She is seated in Edwards's Iowa headquarters, in a desolate business park, coloring in an Edwards sign and wearing a campaign button that depicts her candidate flying through the air in a Superman costume. (That former football star, even more handsome with a cape!)
Pomerantz is trying to stop the Clinton juggernaut by converting the great state of Iowa, one voter at a time. She tells people what Edwards is like up close -- genuine and passionate, reminiscent of John F. Kennedy. "Such a mensch," she says. One time, she took her older sister to see Edwards speak. Another time, she took her handyman.
Two converts. Just a few more to go.
From now on, my blog entries will be spaced. It has become too much to do on a daily basisand stretching me too thin as much as I enjoy it. I would suggest checking in weekly or so from now on but, as always, thanks for your candid feedback.
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