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January  13, 2006

The Shiites Draw A Line In The Sand

It certainly isn't definitive (what is?) but in concluding our our three days of blogging about the future of Iraq, both a New York Times story and one from Juan Cole, a University of Michigan history professor thought by many to have valuable insight on Middle East happenings, indicate the Shiites aren't going to play ball and plan to create their own confederations similar to that of the Kurds.

This will ALWAYS be unacceptable to the Sunnis, who correctly fear being cut out of any political power and being geographically consigned to the poorer areas (read: oil free) of Iraq.

Juan Cole indicates that the Shiites MAY not have enough votes to do so but that is the intent.

What miracle, if any, American ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, can perform remains to be seen.

Things simply don't look good.

Here an excerpt from the New York Times article:
The New York Times
January 12, 2006
Shiite Leader Rejects Big Charter Changes, Frustrating Sunnis
By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr. and QAIS MIZHER

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Jan. 11 - Iraq's most powerful Shiite leader on Wednesday rejected making major changes to the new Constitution, diminishing Sunni Arab hopes of amending the charter to avoid being shut out of the nation's vast oil wealth.

Sunnis were reluctant to sign on to the Constitution last fall, fearing that provisions granting wide powers to autonomous regions would leave oil in the hands of Kurds in the north and Shiites in the south. Sunnis dominate in western and much of northwestern and northcentral Iraq, but the oil lies beneath Kurdistan and parts of southern Iraq that one day may be subsumed in a semi-independent region controlled by Shiites.

As a carrot for the Sunnis, the Constitution was amended before the October referendum so legislators elected in the national voting last month could change it with a two-thirds vote. Some Shiites also voiced a willingness to negotiate with Sunnis on amendments.

But on Wednesday Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, vowed to give no ground on crucial parts of the Constitution.

"We will stop anyone who tries to change the Constitution," said Mr. Hakim, whose party has close ties to Iran. "Many of the people who voted for us were promised federalism in the south," he said, referring to the form of government allowing for semiautonomous regions. He said Kurds, who joined Shiites to form the current ruling coalition, "agree with us about this condition, and we will continue our strategic coalition with our Kurdish brothers."

The speech was Mr. Hakim's latest hard-line statement directed at Sunni Arabs, whom Shiites accuse of fomenting violence to improve bargaining leverage in the new government. While he previously signaled unwillingness to reopen major constitutional issues, Mr. Hakim's belligerent declarations are sure to anger Sunnis hopeful of carving out a meaningful role in the government...
Here is Juan Cole's take (do bookmark Juan Cole's Informed Comment site in order to read what is truly happening throughout the Middle East):
Al-Hakim warns Sunni Arabs on Changes to Constitution

Shiite clerical leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim on Wednesday warned Sunni Arabs not to attempt to make substantive changes in the new Iraqi constitution. The charter was narrowly approved in an October 15 referendum, but was rejected by all three Sunni-majority provinces. US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad worked out a promise to the Sunni Arabs that they would have four months to attempt to introduce amendments into the constitution. They oppose its loose federalism and its current implication that Kurdish and Shiite provinces will receive the lion's share of income from newly discovered natural resources.

Al-Hakim said, according to The Scotsman, "The first principle is not to change the essence of the constitution . . . This constitution was endorsed by the Iraqi people." He also said, according to AP, ""It is our responsibility to form Baghdad provinces and southern Iraq provinces."

Al-Hakim hopes to create two largely Shiite provincial confederacies in the South, and to have Baghdad province itself recognized as having the same prerogatives. The model is the Kurdistan Regional Government, which has very great but not complete autonomy from the federal government. Sunni Arab leaders oppose the creation of any more provincial confederacies.
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