January 13, 2006
The Shiites Draw A Line In The Sand
It certainly isn't
definitive (what is?) but in concluding our our three days of blogging
about the future of Iraq, both a New York Times story and one from Juan Cole,
a University of Michigan history professor thought by many to have
valuable insight on Middle East happenings, indicate the Shiites aren't
going to play ball and plan to create their own confederations similar
to that of the Kurds.
This will ALWAYS be unacceptable to the Sunnis, who correctly fear
being cut out of any political power and being geographically consigned
to the poorer areas (read: oil free) of Iraq.
Juan Cole indicates that the Shiites MAY not have enough votes to do so but that is the intent.
What miracle, if any, American ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, can perform remains to be seen.
Things simply don't look good.
Here an excerpt from the New York Times article:
The New York Times
January 12, 2006
Shiite Leader Rejects Big Charter Changes, Frustrating Sunnis
By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr. and QAIS MIZHER
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Jan. 11 - Iraq's
most powerful Shiite leader on Wednesday rejected making major changes
to the new Constitution, diminishing Sunni Arab hopes of amending the
charter to avoid being shut out of the nation's vast oil wealth.
Sunnis were reluctant to sign on to
the Constitution last fall, fearing that provisions granting wide
powers to autonomous regions would leave oil in the hands of Kurds in
the north and Shiites in the south. Sunnis dominate in western and much
of northwestern and northcentral Iraq, but the oil lies beneath
Kurdistan and parts of southern Iraq that one day may be subsumed in a
semi-independent region controlled by Shiites.
As a carrot for the Sunnis, the
Constitution was amended before the October referendum so legislators
elected in the national voting last month could change it with a
two-thirds vote. Some Shiites also voiced a willingness to negotiate
with Sunnis on amendments.
But on Wednesday Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq,
vowed to give no ground on crucial parts of the Constitution.
"We will stop anyone who tries to
change the Constitution," said Mr. Hakim, whose party has close ties to
Iran. "Many of the people who voted for us were promised federalism in
the south," he said, referring to the form of government allowing for
semiautonomous regions. He said Kurds, who joined Shiites to form the
current ruling coalition, "agree with us about this condition, and we
will continue our strategic coalition with our Kurdish brothers."
The speech was Mr. Hakim's latest
hard-line statement directed at Sunni Arabs, whom Shiites accuse of
fomenting violence to improve bargaining leverage in the new
government. While he previously signaled unwillingness to reopen major
constitutional issues, Mr. Hakim's belligerent declarations are sure to
anger Sunnis hopeful of carving out a meaningful role in the
government...
Here is Juan Cole's take (do bookmark Juan Cole's Informed Comment site in order to read what is truly happening throughout the Middle East):
Al-Hakim warns Sunni Arabs on Changes to Constitution
Shiite clerical leader Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim on Wednesday warned Sunni Arabs not to attempt to make
substantive changes in the new Iraqi constitution. The charter was
narrowly approved in an October 15 referendum, but was rejected by all
three Sunni-majority provinces. US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad worked
out a promise to the Sunni Arabs that they would have four months to
attempt to introduce amendments into the constitution. They oppose its
loose federalism and its current implication that Kurdish and Shiite
provinces will receive the lion's share of income from newly discovered
natural resources.
Al-Hakim said, according to The
Scotsman, "The first principle is not to change the essence of the
constitution . . . This constitution was endorsed by the Iraqi people."
He also said, according to AP, ""It is our responsibility to form
Baghdad provinces and southern Iraq provinces."
Al-Hakim hopes to create two
largely Shiite provincial confederacies in the South, and to have
Baghdad province itself recognized as having the same prerogatives. The
model is the Kurdistan Regional Government, which has very great but
not complete autonomy from the federal government. Sunni Arab leaders
oppose the creation of any more provincial confederacies.
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